How to forecast values

 

Purpose

The goal of this cookbook is to explain how to compute and display the Forecast values for the count of the payments acquired during the day.

We will also explain how to configure and display a threshold evaluation of the values produced by the forecast.

 

How to forecast the value of an attribute

There are two possibilities to have a Forecast: you can either create an Observed Attribute and absorb the values or you can compute it.

Forecast can be computed for these three data types: Integer, Decimal or Duration.

In order to create a Forecast, you have to derive a value whose data type is one of the three listed above and select the function Forecast (Linear regression).

The following picture shows the detail of the configuration:

 

In this case it is computed every one minute using acquiredCurrentDayCount as the input.

You specify in the time range section how you wish to compute the forecast:

  • On last defines how you select the values that will be used by the forecast algorithm. In this case, the configuration uses the last 10 minutes of data (at computing time).
  • Forecast on next defines how many values the forecast will produce. Each of the produced values are spaced in time by one computing rhythm duration.

How to evaluate a forecast against a threshold

In order to evaluate the values of the forecast, you have to derive the forecast and select the Forecast Classifier function.

The second input is a Threshold. It can be created as an observed attribute and absorbed or computed by using the Threshold from baseline function (see How to configure baseline and thresholds).

How to display a forecast

There are two ways to display a Forecast value: 

If you want to see it on a chart you can use the Multi Historical mashlet (left mashlet in the picture bellow).

If you want to list the values of the forecast and/or the result of the threshold evaluation, you must use the Forecast and Classifier mashlet.

 Multi-Historical

 This chart allows to display multiple scalar values and Forecast values.

 

 The first input, acquiredCurrentDayCount, here is the count of payments received during the day. That is this input which is used to compute the Forecast. It is displayed in blue on the chart.

 The second input, acquiredCCforecast, is the Forecast value of the first input.

The chart only displays the latest forecast values that intersect the chart's time range.

It is possible to change the format of the Forecast to make it more distinguishable from the existing values. In order to have dots for the forecast chart's, you have to edit the format of the series and select Plot instead of Line as pictured below.

 

Forecast and Classifier

This mashlet is dedicated to display the forecast of a value at time machine instant (default configuration) and/or the classifiers that result of the evaluation of the forecast with a threshold.

Both inputs are optional but you must select at least one of the inputs to be able to save the configuration.

By default, the mashlet displays 2 values for the forecast, if you want to display more you have to edit the Forecast's format and change the value of Forecast count:

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